Finding out why subscribers leave
A cancellation and missed-renewal analysis that pointed the roadmap away from discounts.
79% of cancellations after zero or one order
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Most missed renewals were reschedules
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46% of failed payments recovered
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79% of cancellations after zero or one order ~ Most missed renewals were reschedules ~ 46% of failed payments recovered ~
Brand: DTC air purifier brand, same subscription program
My role: Analysis and roadmap
Data: Recharge cancellation, skip, reschedule, and payment exports; Shopify customer cohorts
The situation
The renewal rate sat around 70%, so roughly 3 in 10 scheduled renewals didn't go through. The easy assumption was that those customers were cancelling and needed a bigger discount to stay. I pulled every subscriber action to find out what was actually happening.
What the data showed
Most missed renewals were reschedules, not cancellations. Subscribers who moved a delivery pushed it back a median of 33 days. They still wanted the product, just not on that schedule.
Failed payments were only about a fifth of missed renewals, and the recovery program already wins back 46% of them.
79% of cancellations came after zero or one order. Churn concentrates at the very start of the relationship.
Cancellations cluster at two moments: 24% within the first 30 days, and 33% around the first annual renewal (days 331 to 400).
72% of skips happened at the first renewal, and 42% came within 3 days of the charge.
What it pointed to
The fix wasn't a deeper discount. The data pointed to delivery cadence and timing: default schedules that match how fast customers really use the product, reminders early enough to adjust before the charge, and focused attention on the first order and the first annual renewal.
What this means for your brand
Churn is several different problems with one name. Before you add an offer, find out whether subscribers are cancelling, skipping, rescheduling, or failing payment, and when. Each one has a different fix, and most of them aren't discounts.